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My 2021 Portfolio
Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.
Company
Ticker
Entry Price
Exposure
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF
ARKG
$93.26
6.60%
CrowdStrike
CRWD
$211.82
11.78%
Disney
DIS
$181.18
10.53%
Enphase Energy
ENPH
$175.47
7.98%
Evolution Gaming Group
EVVTY
$101.02
12.77%
Facebook
FB
$273.16
11.05%
Redfin
RDFN
$68.63
10.41%
Teladoc
TDOC
$199.96
9.60%
Sea Ltd
SE
$199.05
14.09%
Waste Connections
WCN
$102.57
5.19%
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.
Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.
Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
“Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.
Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.
Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.
Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.
Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.
Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.
Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.
Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.
Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.
Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.
Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.
Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.
This year I started playing Fifa again. My last fut experience was FUT 13, I’ll say here what I think changed and didn’t, what is positive or not. 1) Meta players impact As far as I remember, meta players in FUT 13 was not as impactful as meta players are now. Of course we had also players that were OP (like David Luiz Ogbonna Wellington...) but I feel like the gap was not as important as actual meta players. The defense Mendy Varane Gomez Walker is used by almost everybody I’m going against. I remember more versatility because even if some players where OP, the gap was not as huge as today. This result in more versatility. Nowadays I feel like playing the same 8 players every games. I think this is a negative change that affect the happiness of playing. 2) Rewards / Promo This is a huge positive change. Back in FUT 13, rewards didn’t exist. Neither was WL. To get enough money to play players you liked would take you so much time and games. There was no pack rewards. I didn’t open a single pack in FUT 13 as I don’t put money in the game. Now in FUT 21 you have rewards, packs to open, and this every week. It’s a great addition and I could build me team of non meta players really quickly. The only thing I think could improve is the time you need to spend in the game to get those rewards, 30 games every week-end, Squad Battles games that are boring and take too much time. But this is a huge positive change and there are actually lot of versatility, WL, Rivals, Squad Battle, Friendlies. That’s a huge W, and rewards are good even if the time required is a bit too much. The downside is that there are so many promo cards that are so powerful to make your cards weaker to keep you grinding. Promos can be good, not when the sole purpose is to make your cards irrelevant and make you splash money to get better cards. 3) Untradable cards - SBC This is a neutral change. Their addition in the game is a great thing for players who just want to play with any good players. Pros : you get double rewards. Cons : you’re limited to players you get and SBC EA choose to give us. If you’re a player that just want to play with any good players, this is a good thing, just open untradable and play with the best players you get out of it, splash the rest in SBC to try to get even better players -> repeat. For players that want specific players (like me) it’s not that great as it locks you into SBC and players you pick. That’s why I recommend choosing tradable rewards of you want specific players. SBC are really cool and a great thing as this makes players you get in packs keep some of their value throughout the year. The only negative point is when the rewards are untradable (for SBC I understand, but for packs you get from objectives it’s not that great). Positive thing. 4) Gameplay (skill moves) The gameplay changed a lot but one thing didn’t, how Pace is important. This will probably last forever. The gameplay improved a lot, positively, except for one huge negative thing : skill moves. Skill moves where already a thing back in FUT 13, but it wasn’t OP, it was great. Nowadays, roll balls and step overs are too game defining and are overused. Andres Verjgang for exemple is doing them at every single touch, either ball rolls, either step overs. And this is really bad because it makes the game completely unreal. In real life, you don’t make ball rolls and step overs every time you touch the ball, and this shouldn’t be a thing either in FIFA, it’s like salt, without it it’s tasteless, but with too much it’s inedible. 5) Hidden casinos This is something that didn’t change and is a huge L. This game is a casinos when you want to put money into. And this is really bad. No control about packs odds, thousands of money can be put into the game without having the best cards out of packs, etc. This is something really important that EA needs to address, even more when you’re client are vastly youngster (12 - 22 Years old). Casinos are forbidden for them for a reasons addictiveness is a thing that’s real and shouldn’t be hidden in games that are meant to be fun. If you go to a casinos, you know where you’re putting you foot in, when your mums buys you fifa when your 14, you don’t (neither she does). 6) Objectives and season pas Good content that were added on, makes the game less boring. 7) A feeling that it’s more about the money than the game When playing to other games, even if money is involved, it doesn’t feel as if the only reasons they made the game was to take money from you. You can feel that they are passionate about it. Don’t take me wrong, trying to make money isn’t a problem. But with EA, it feels like they aren’t playing their own game, because some things are so infuriating that it’s not good. I would gladly put some money into the game if I felt that they were passionate and they tried to make the game better for their player base. But that’s not how it is with FIFA. It’s seems like every move they are doing is to make you spend money one way or another. And that’s a huge L. In conclusion, a lot of things improved the game, but EA’s will to take all of our money is still present and won’t change. I wish this licence was bought by a better company that cares about the actual game and only about the money it makes would be great. What’s your opinion about all these? I have probably forgotten things, what can you add? Feel free to comment and thanks for reading.
A series of trips to Las Vegas by September 11 hijackers became the object of the largest investigation in the city. The reason behind these trips remains a mystery.
On September 11 of 2001, 19 men hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and into an open field in Shanksville PA. These men were al-Qaeda terrorists doing the deeds in the name of a holy war against the West and not much about the attack remains a mystery unless you subscribe to the inside job theory, which isn't my case. What authorities haven't been able to explain is the hijackers' several trips to Las Vegas despite what has been dubbed to be the broadest investigation in city. All these trips happened within a few months before the attacks, but the men behind them left very little evidence of their activities in the area. TIMELINE May 24 - Marwan Al-Shehhi, the pilot who crashed the United Airlines Flight 175 into the South Towers of the WTC, arrived to Las Vegas from San Francisco and rented a room at Travelodge as a walk in customer. Once there, he called eight other motels. May 25 - Al-Shehhi walked in the St. Luis Manor, a hotel that wasn't on the call list. At 12:52 pm, he rented a different car, but didn't return the first car until 3:58pm. The unaccounted mileage in both vehicles summed up to 29 miles. FBI believes that these unusual patterns were a conscious attempt to avoid detection. May 27 - Al-Shehhi made it to New York. June 7 - Ziad Jarrah, pilot of the United Airlines 93 that crashed in Shanskville while on its way to the Capitol Building, arrived to Las Vegas and rented a car at 3:13 pm. He was accompanied by an unidentified man described as "middle eastern looking". When Jarrah asked for directions to Circus Circus Hotel and Casino, the a rent-a-car employee tried to give him an answer but was interrupted by the unidentified man who suggested another route. The man's knowledge of the address suggests that he was familiar with the area or that he had been in Las Vegas before. June 10 - Jarrah took a flight to the Baltimore Washington International Airport leaving his rented car with a mileage exceeding 200 miles and no trace of his Las Vegas whereabouts . June 28 - Mohamed Atta, pilot of American Airlines Flight 11 that crashed into the North Tower of WTC and leader of the hijackers, arrived to Las Vegas at 2:41 pm and rented a car at 4:25 pm. At 6:40 pm Atta established an account at Cyberzone internet café and used the computer for one hour and thirty five minutes. June 29 - Atta checked into Econo Lodge Motel at 1:01 pm. He logged in at Cyberzone again at 2:21 and 6:21 pm. Once done, the FBI believes he went back to his hotel. June 30 - Atta accessed his Cyberzone accounts at 1:56 pm, 6:30 pm and 9:33 pm. The mileage analysis indicated that he returned to his hotel afterwards. This day as well as the day before, Atta had placed several call to Al-Shehhi as well as to two different number in Houston, TX. One number was unassigned and the other one belonged to a mobile salesman. July 1 - Atta returned his rented vehicle at the airport at 5:12 am and took a flight to New York that connected in Denver. The vehicle had 73 unaccounted miles of usage which the FBI believes would cover a round trip to the Hoover Dam. July 31 - Waleed al-Shehri, hijacker of the Flight 11, took a flight from San Francisco to Las Vegas where he stayed for 45 minutes while waiting for another flight to Miami. It is unclear to me whether this was a tactical flight - the hijackers were believed to take flights to study their trajectory as well as entrance to the cockpit-, or just a connection. August 13 - Hani Hanjour and Nawaf al-Hazmi, pilot and hijackers of the American Airlines Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon arrived to Las Vegas at 11:18 am. At 11:58 am, Atta arrived to Las Vegas to and rented a vehicle at 1:46 pm. The FBI assumed that the three men met, but no activity from Hanjour and al-Hazim was recorded from that trip. Atta accessed a room at the Econo Lodge at 2:55 pm and connected at the Cyberzone at 11:26 pm, getting back to his room at 12:46 am. August 14 - Atta returned his rented car at 11:09 am leaving no unaccounted mileage and took a flight outside Las Vegas. Hanjour and al-Hazmi boarded a flight at 11:29 am. THEORIES A) Al-Qaeda was looking to target Las Vegas area As noted in Atta's first trip, the unaccounted mileage added up to a round trip to the dam from his hotel. However, Atta's vehicle was not among the recorded license plates in the parking garage of the dam. If the hijackers had connections in Las Vegas area, which seems to be the case with Jarrah, Atta might have traveled to Boulder City or any other town close to the lake and gotten to the dam with someone else in a different vehicle. It should also be noted that both Atta and al-Shehhi stayed in hotels close to the Stratosphere, a hotel and casino located in the highest building of the city. Being known as the Sin City, Las Vegas could have been a attractive target for jihadists looking to rebel against what they perceived to be the westernization of their home countries and culture. B) Hijackers were exchanging information with other Al-Qaeda members The FBI emphasized the short duration on hijacker's trip to Las Vegas saying that it was just long enough to exchange information. Authorities believe that Atta was not only looking at flight on the East coast but he also kept in communication with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, a potential 20th hijacker who had been denied entry to the United States and acted as an intermediary between Al-Qaeda and the other hijackers. Jarrah's mystery companion and the complete lack of evidence of his whereabouts point to possible terrorist acquaintances residing or staying in Las Vegas that are yet to be identified. The FBI summary mentions two persons of interest: Lotfi Raissi and Zakaria Hassan Ibrahim. Raissi started attending the Sawyer School of Aviation in 1998 one month after Hanjour quit. Two days after Jarrah left Las Vegas, Raissi arrived to the city with his wife and stayed there until June 18. His stay didn't overlap with that of the hijackers and he claims he went to Las Vegas to celebrate his honeymoon. On September 21, Raissi was arrested near Colnbrook, UK, where he had been living at the time of the attacks. Prosecutor Arvinder Sambei claimed that the FBI had footage of him celebrating an event with Hanjour and that his flight logs from March 2000 to June 2001 were missing. It has also been claimed that Raissi was training five of the hijackers. No such proof was presented to the courts and the man in the footage turned out to be his cousin and not Hanjour, as it had been previously claimed. Hassan Ibrahim had previously been convicted for trafficking in fraudulent passports and visas. He was the person to provide Mir Aimal Kansi, CIA headquarters shooter , and Mohammed A. Salameh, perpetrator of the 1993 WTC bombing, with fake documents. He was reported to have spent most of July in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, not much information about this individual is accessible so I could not verify if any connection between him and the hijackers was formally established. C) Hijackers went to Las Vegas as a final pleasure stop before committing suicide This theory was briefly mentioned by Evan Thomas, journalist, and quoted by criminologist Adam Lankford in his psychological autopsy of Mohamed Atta. According to the author, Atta and the other hijackers - Hanjour and al-Hazmi - might have visited Las Vegas because maybe " they wished to be fortified for their mission by visiting a shrine to American decadence". While not much is known about Hanjour and al-Hazmi, Atta has been alluded to by the people who knew him as a sexually repressed man who experienced extreme discomfort around women and the mildest hint of sexuality. When years of repression build up an uncontrollable sexual urge, the individual might end up participating is risky sexual activities. Nevertheless, the circumstances of the trip make sex and gambling very unlikely motives. Their stays were short, happened across different months and there was no evidence of them visiting casinos or any similar venues. Strippers supposedly identified al-Shehhi as one of their patrons, but evidence was not conclusive. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that a quick visit to the strip club was anything more than a fun opportunity while pursuing a bigger goal. I personally believe that the hijackers visited Las Vegas to coordinate the attacks with other members from Al-Qaeda who flew under the radar (no pun intended). SOURCES: Las Vegas investigative summary Theories on why 9/11 hijackers visited Las Vegas David C. Henley: 9/11 hijackers visits to Nevada remain a mystery Wikipedia entry for Mir Aimal Kansi Wikipedia entry for Mohammed A. Salameh Cracking the terror code EDIT: Thanks for the awards people!
Yesterday, I got the question about whether the "50 WP lucky chest is worth it or not." I was talking to a few people about the game and how I generally advocate going for long term steady gains through preparation and farming instead of spending on small bits of RNG here and there. For example, these enhanced crit stones for a dollar each or so in the anniversary packages. We were going through the check CP page and I stumbled on a realization that I think everyone knows but doesn't see big picture enough. This is most of the things in the game CPwise that you can obtain. Anything with a red rectangle has RNG involved which means you need more resources than you expect in most cases: https://preview.redd.it/d6lwy7t4xs561.png?width=1604&format=png&auto=webp&s=26b1471c92577d3d5612427c1c2f488e7d03e4f6 I wanted to call attention to the main offenders: pets and the majority of the right side of this list. The right side is everything that PA wants to sell you. As soon as you open your character page, it's all the shiny stuff that you see. Additionally, it is everything that people pull their hair out over, make "i did it!" posts on reddit over, etc. You can tell this is true because if you ask to see someone's CP, they immediately assume you're talking about their gear page instead of the Check CP list. The right side is everything that PA wants you to pay attention to and the left side is everything that is hidden and keeps you growing steadily enough to keep playing the game successfully. In an attempt to mathematically evaluate the 50 WP lucky shop, I wanted to find a base value in dollars of what each possible drop was and multiply it by the rate (which is posted) and then compare it to 50 WPs dollar value (40 cents). So I started the math to determine a base of value of each individual product (1 red acc = $20, 1 sushi = $1, etc) but it became so convoluted that the math stopped making sense whenever you change currency values so much. Because of this, it became really hard to mathematically justify when ANY package was worth getting in order to knock RNG stuff out of the way (totem +6 for example). What it boils down to is this: I couldn't do the math, you might not be able to do the math either, but I guarantee you PA can and has. They wouldn't sell something that they haven't calculated would make them money. This is the casino aspect of it. You should realize that anytime you buy RNG, PA has calculated that RNG to take your money favorably to them. The exception to this is when they want to release something and they need people to catch up so they might do crazy sales, but it's more likely that we get our free stuff from events to help normalize the server's CP. Additionally, it's no surprise that some items that are heavy in RNG (pets, totems, glyphs, valks 50, sushi, resto, red lightstones, red relics, magic essence) are much much harder to obtain in game than the guaranteed items like stamps, vials, and POG tickets. Those 3 things are easier to obtain, but since they're guaranteed, we want a massive amount of all 3 of those; basically to a point where we would need to whale hard to cap. So what's the takeaway? This game sucks and PA is full of demons? No. Not at all. This game is by far the highest quality mobile game out there. It's honestly better than most PC MMORPGs right now. But it does mean that if you want to enjoy it, you need to know how to play it. Kind of like drinking responsibly I guess. Here are a few points that help make the game more enjoyable, prevent burnout, and prevent that horrible sinking feeling of buying something and then having it piss away and wishing you could turn back time 15 minutes: - Do not spend on RNG unless the deal is borderline a guarantee and you never need to really deal with it for a very long time. For example, when totems released, there was a hot deal for 50 totems for 30 dollars which I think most people knew was a horrible deal. That's enough for a +4 I would say. You need about 800-1000 for a +6. This was 20 dollars on black friday to get 1500, getting as close to a sure thing as you can get for that. That was the time to knock totems out. We are currently seeing this now with glyphs. You can do well enough now by getting totem +6, full pen, red relic +0, and full red accessories. That's really all someone needs RNGwise to do okay. - If you want to spend on something for yourself this Christmas, make sure it is a non-RNG purchase. This translates to 3 things and that's really it: vials (no great vial deals right now btw. black friday was the time for those), POG (500 wp for 10 or 1500 BP for 10), or boss stamps (via hot deal only usually). Don't enhance under 100%. If someone came up to you and said "there's a 98% chance I won't kick you in the balls right now; wanna roll the dice?", you likely would not play that game. Just go to 100%. - Do all the events, do all the dailies, and do merchantry daily. You can make silver from the resources gain, you make some stamps from merchantry, you can stay on top of your camp, you make stamps from node manager, etc. As long as you play the game, you can get items which will improve your left side. Cart 4 merchantry takes 30 minutes to go through 100k food. Cart 5 takes 15. - Don't fall into this silly trap of thinking PA or whales are the devil just because they are offering something that you don't think is worth the price. That'd be like walking into a grocery store and being pissed off at the store that they offer chocolate milk for $4 and it should be $2. Just don't buy the fucking milk; that offer isn't for you. Only pay attention to the things that fit your personal budget, even if that's $0. Just because an item is offered for a high price doesn't mean that you have to get it to play. Just skip it. Honestly, I don't feel bad at all knowing that my competition will spend hundreds of dollars per week/month because I know that they'll eventually just burn out and I'll win that way. - Don't treat this game like a casino. You've played RPGs before when you were a kid. They are a long drawn out marathon over time that make you stronger and stronger the more you play them. Play this game like an RPG; not a casino. Don't spend on RNG. EDIT: Related to this, for anyone who cares, I want to tell you another story. Before this discussion last night, a guild member of mine asked me to look at their stuff and tell them how best to grow 114 CP in 30 minutes. I saw his black spirit level was 187 and emblem was 21. I did some math since I knew the amount to get to 24 and determined he needed 86 path of glory to get there, pushing him 3 black spirit levels, 3 emblem levels, and getting him enough silver to buy a red off the market and create a pink crystal. Looking at the packages available, he found the Pearls + POG package for 50 dollars, and 3x of the 10 dollar package, and then used the WP on the 50 passes for 2500 WP. This was an 80 dollar solution to his problem to get it immediately. It was guaranteed, but in my opinion expensive to have 90 runs with only 700 WP left over. I pointed out to him that I recommended a different solution that for 60 dollars, he could have bought 2x Double Daily Pearl II, got half his CP immediately, and then waited 10 days for the other half. This would have saved him 20 dollars and gotten him a whopping 3100 WP left over in value, both of which could have been spent on even more CP if he chose (like the 3k WP event pass and the $20 anniversary chest). I also told him that lacking in 60 CP wasn't going to make him go from 6 hits to kill someone down to 5 hits in Black Sun so effectively the 10 day wait would be identical to having it now. The moral of the story is a lot of the packages out there are garbage and there might be much more effective means of spending if you even choose to spend. Find them or wait for them to present themselves.
Over the years I have thoroughly enjoyed throwing together playlists for different occasions (making coffee, working out, weddings, seasons, etc.) and thought I'd share! Please let me know your thoughts, favourite mixes, as well as recommendations for future playlists. All feedback is welcome! Hope you enjoy them: That Weekend Feeling Skip to the good bit; weekend grooves to wave away any weekday blues. Awesome Mix: Ultimate Edition (Mixtape) A great hero, named Kevin Bacon, once taught an entire city full of people with sticks up their butts that, dancing, well, is the greatest thing there is. The legend of Footloose comes alive with Awesome Mix: Ultimate Edition - Songs from and inspired by the Guardians of the Galaxy series. Morning Motivation: Steal Some Sunshine Soak up the sun with energetic jams and breezy classics! I'd Drink To That: Party Playlist Mix it up with a party playlist to keep the night buzzing. I'd Sing To That: Carpool Karaoke Pack up and take those pipes on a roadtrip! The catchy. The memorable. Just Jams 🎧 Nothing but jams to fill a pair of headphones or stadium. Brendan's Listen Local Funky & Thumpy! Some of my favourite energetic jams, classics, and BBQ party starters from our local Australian & New Zealand artists. Friday Fire It's Friday! Friends. Family. Fun. Groovin' The Brew Nothing but rockin' party grooves on tap. Diverse Pop Sounds It's pop, but not as you know it. Break Thru Ear Candy. Sunday Sesh Beers & bangers on a weekend! Run To Paradise Set up goals, and knock them down with an energetic running playlist. Summer Daze The heat is on with a playlist of crisp summer tunes. Autumn Mix: Volume 1 A breezy & brilliant playlist for the ever-changing Autumn seasons. Chilled Pop Soft, chilled winter pop songs. Warm Tunes Warm songs of Spring, like a comforting embrace. A Mid-Summer Night's Drink 🍻 Lord, what fun these mortals be! Wind Down 🌚 When the night winds down, so does some great music. 90's Baby! 📼 It is the sound of the roller disco, BMX bike track and arcade! The Hip Hip Hop Only the hippest of the hip. My modern and classic hip hop favourites. Indie Bops: It's ALT Good Get your alternative bounce on. Not Your Final Form: A Workout Playlist All the other licks with the pumped up kicks to keep you going during a workout. My favourites and a few other choice tunes for pushing harder, faster, stronger. Easy On The Ears Easy, Easy, Easybeats. Life Is Good ☀️ Today is gonna be a good day. Dial M For Music Deep, cathartic music. JOY Smile. Vibe Hard Get into the zone, and vibe-out to infectious tunes! Rock & Roll Never Dies Who says rock & roll is dead? Commercial radio? It's always been around; you've just got to roll with it and look harder. Get your kicks! Brainfood Introspective acoustic, calming strings, uplifting anthems, and a touch of nature. Food for the brain, and perfect background noise for studies. Game Night 🎲 For every occasion... casino, tabletop, videogames; a soundtrack to a brilliant game night! Sizzlers: BBQ Playlist 🍔 Fire up the burner and the anthems with a barbeque playlist hotter than the bright ball in the sky. Kickstart My Heart: Classic Rock Radio Rocking all over the world. Rush Hour Grinding Gears. Riff Raff: Party Rock Some rowdy rock to turn up the night. RE : FRESH 🍹 SUPERDOPE. Piña colada's and Caribbean Rum. The Driver There's a voice in my head that drives my heel. Country Road Might as well cruise. Might as well banjo. Born to be Wild Life's an adventure; you can't be tamed. Night Moves: Dancing In The Moonlight Unwind with the moonbeams. Night drives & night lives. Funk Right Off Get Funk'd. Rambling Roses 💐 Beauty and Love are as body and soul. Beauty is the mine, Love is the diamond. Sweat. Reset. Whatever it takes. 'Cause you love the adrenaline in your veins. Power Pop: Marathon Power pop to push and electrify a workout. Cool Beans: Coffee Playlist Recharge with some warm tunes. Kitchen Crooners 🎀 Now we're cooking! Now We're Cooking! Tasty tunes for the Kitchen. Pool Party Dive in to great poolside swing. Inspiration 💡 Takes Flight Reach for the Sky! Going Places Always push forward. First 💍 Songs for special days. DisNeat - Taking The Mickey Nothing but Disney favourites. Road Trip: Spinning Wheels Hear the call for adventure and hit the road. Guilty Pleasures 🍨 You like the Grease soundtrack? Word. Catchy AF POP Pop that bops. Essentials and the catchiest of the catchy. Acoustica Stripped Back. Playlist + Chill Cool off with some chilled beats and sweet acoustic. Making Waves Unwind with breathy, breezy songs perfect for a walk on the beach. The Playlist Of The Decade (New Years Eve) We welcomed 2020 with the ultimate party playlist jam-packed with familiar throwbacks and modern favourites from the 2010's! Good times! Rhythm Heaven Step up and dance. Sax on the Beach 🎷 Gratuitous? Nah! An instrument to elevate a song from good to great! BedroX 🔥 Sparks. Pump It Up: The Playlist of Champions 🏆 Winner winner, chicken dinner. Retro Rewind Twist & shout to killer Jukebox Classics. Classic Se7ens Nothing but 70's favourites. Great Eight's Nothing but 80's Favourites. Noughty & Nice Nothing but great 00's Throwbacks. The Best Playlist Never Heard It's unheard of! Best Songs You Might Have Missed Potentially slipped under the radar. Songs for Soundtracks 🎬 Royale with cheese. The Grand European Playlist About to take off! EPIC 🗡 Fortune & Glory! SUPERHOT VR : ROCK The champ is coming. SUPERHOT VR : HIP-HOP Kings never die. SUPERHOT VR : ACTION John Wick Schtick. Cowboy Bebop : Spike Spiegel Spike Spiegel is an ex-Syndicate goon and a bounty hunter aboard the Bebop. He is proficient in martial arts, zipcraft flying, and gunfights, but he also has comical and aloof sides of his personality. If there's three things he can't stand, it's kids, pets, and women with attitudes. Cowboy Bebop : Faye Valentine Faye Valentine is a coma survivor of over 50 years and she is trying to regain her memory. She got into a lot of debt upon entering this futuristic world, and she had to resort to a life of crime and hustling to survive... that is, until she decided to live on the Bebop and become a bounty hunter. Cowboy Bebop : Jet Black Jet Black is an ex-ISSP Special Forces Officer and the Captain of the Bebop. He is a bounty hunter and is called the "Black Dog" because once he sinks his teeth in he never lets go. Jet enjoys American Jazz music, taking care of Bonsai trees, and has a knack for investigative work. Cowboy Bebop : Radical Edward Edward is a net diver from Earth. Edward is a child prodigy for hacking and has an aptitude for anything mechanical, even though Edward has some eccentricities in other parts of her personality. For instance, Edward speaks in third person and sometimes behaves like a wild animal. At The Movies 🎟 Lights, camera, playlist. James Bond Classics 🍸 A martini, shaken, not stirred. The Word Is Bond 🍸 The world is not enough; but this playlist comes pretty close. Live Love LIVE Blistering live performances. Future Nostalgia Neo-swing, retro swagger; it's future nostalgia. B-Side Yourself Hidden Gems, Deep Cuts & Rarities. Punk'd You're Gonna Go Far, Kid. Building Houses: Hit By Hit Baby let's play house. Far ALT A playlist rocking that weird shit. Stay Home: The Safety Dance Stay safe out there. Day Tripper A playlist for a long drive - a day trip. In Tents Music For Camping. Roots Bluesy classics to strut to. All That Jazz Get jazzy on it. Focus Features Take a breather. Australiana Paradise. Drive Time Coast to coast. Songs for a spin. Stone Cold Classicals It's classically classic. Hall of Fame 💎 Songs for the career climbers and L.A. dreamers. Glitz & glam; all that jazz. This is Halloween Everybody Scream! It's Beginning to Sound A Lot Like Christmas! Christmas Classics. Just For Laughs 🎭 What a Joker! Two Nights In Tao🎙 Karaoke? There's a first time for everything. GAME Take control. Game On : Borderlands Psycho-delic CHOO CHOO THE PAIN TRAIN'S COMIN' Red Dead Redemption II Songs For Bloody Duels, Whiskey-Fueled Gambles, and Rolling Desert Plains. Energy Shot Keep animated with an energetic dose of catchy music! Party Fillers A background mix for any event. The Essential AC/DC AC/DC are an Australian rock band formed in Sydney in 1973 by Scottish-born brothers Malcolm and Angus Young. Although their music has been variously described as hard rock, blues rock, and heavy metal, the band themselves call it simply "rock and roll" The Essential One Republic OneRepublic is an American pop rock band formed in Colorado Springs, Colorado, in 2002. It consists of lead vocalist and multi-instrumentalist Ryan Tedder, guitarist Zach Filkins, guitarist Drew Brown, bassist and cellist Brent Kutzle, drummer Eddie Fisher and keyboardist Brian Willett. The Essential Shinedown Shinedown is an American rock band from Jacksonville, Florida, formed by singer Brent Smith in 2001. Shinedown has sold more than ten million records worldwide, and has had the most number one singles on the Billboard Mainstream Rock charts out of any band, with 16. The Essential Dua Lipa Dua Lipa is an English singer and songwriter. After working as a model, she signed with Warner Music Group in 2015 and released her self-titled debut album in 2017. The success of the singles helped her self-titled album become one of the most-streamed albums on Spotify. The Essential Preatures The Preatures are an Australian band from Sydney. The band was formed in 2010 and features Isabella 'Izzi' Manfredi on vocals/keyboards, Jack Moffitt (guitar), Thomas Champion (bass) and Luke Davison (drums). The band won the Vanda & Young Songwriting Competition with their song Is This How You Feel. The Essential Maroon 5 Maroon 5 is an American pop rock band from Los Angeles, California. It currently consists of lead vocalist Adam Levine, keyboardist and rhythm guitarist Jesse Carmichael, lead guitarist James Valentine, drummer Matt Flynn, keyboardist PJ Morton and multi-instrumentalist Sam Farrar. The Essential INXS INXS were an Australian rock band, formed in 1977 in Sydney. INXS was fronted by Hutchence, whose magnetic stage presence made him the focal point of the band. Initially known for their new wave/pop style, the band later developed a harder pub rock style that included funk and dance elements. The Essential Beatles The Beatles were an English rock band formed in Liverpool in 1960. The group, whose best-known line-up comprised John Lennon, Paul McCartney, George Harrison and Ringo Starr, are regarded as the most influential band of all time. The Beatles are the best-selling music act of all time. The Essential Volbeat Volbeat are a Danish rock band formed in Copenhagen in 2001. They play a fusion of rock and roll, heavy metal and rockabilly. Their current line-up consists of vocalist and guitarist Michael Poulsen, guitarist Rob Caggiano, drummer Jon Larsen and bassist Kaspar Boye Larsen. The Essential Chromeo Chromeo is a Canadian electro-funk duo from Montreal, formed in 2002 by musicians David "Dave 1" Macklovitch and Patrick "P-Thugg" Gemayel. Their sound draws from blue-eyed soul, dance music, rock, synth-pop, disco and funk. As of 2018, the band has released five studio albums. The Essential Queen Queen are a British rock band formed in London in 1970. Their classic line-up was Freddie Mercury (lead vocals, piano), Brian May (guitar, vocals), Roger Taylor (drums, vocals) and John Deacon (bass). With estimated record sales ranging from 170 million to 300 million, they are one of the biggest. The Essential Michael Jackson Michael Joseph Jackson (August 29, 1958 – June 25, 2009) was an American singer, songwriter, and dancer. Dubbed the "King of Pop", he is regarded as one of the most significant cultural figures of the 20th century. The Essential Brian Setzer Brian Robert Setzer (born April 10, 1959) is an American guitarist, singer, and songwriter. He found widespread success in the early 1980s with the 1950s-style rockabilly group Stray Cats, and revitalized his career in the early 1990s with his swing revival band, the Brian Setzer Orchestra. The Essential Florida Georgia Line Florida Georgia Line are an American country music duo consisting of vocalists Tyler Hubbard and Brian Kelley. Their 2012 debut single "Cruise" broke two major sales records: it was downloaded over seven million times, making it the first country song ever to receive the Diamond certification. The Essential KISS Kiss is an American rock band formed in New York City in January 1973 by Paul Stanley, Gene Simmons, Peter Criss, and Ace Frehley. Well known for its members' face paint and stage outfits, the group rose to prominence in the mid-to-late 1970s with its elaborate live performances. The Essential Sheppard Sheppard is an Australian indie pop band from Brisbane, formed in 2009. At the 2014 ARIA's ceremony, they were nominated for Album of the Year, Best Group, Best Independent Release, Best Pop Release, Song of the Year, Producer of the Year, and Best Video. The Essential Matchbox 20 Matchbox Twenty is an American rock band, formed in Orlando, Florida, in 1995. The group currently consists of Rob Thomas (lead vocals, guitar, keyboards), Brian Yale (bass guitar), Paul Doucette (drums, rhythm guitar, backing vocals), and Kyle Cook (lead guitar, vocals). The Essential Coldplay Coldplay are a British rock band that were formed in London in 1996 consisting of vocalist and pianist Chris Martin, guitarist Jonny Buckland, bassist Guy Berryman, and drummer Will Champion. Coldplay have sold more than 100 million records worldwide, making them one of the world's best-selling. The Essential Daughtry Daughtry is an American rock band formed and fronted by namesake Chris Daughtry, who was a finalist on the fifth season of American Idol. Their self-titled debut album was released in November 2006 and reached number one on the Billboard 200. To date, Daughtry has sold over 9 million albums. The Essential Black Eyed Peas The Black Eyed Peas are an American musical group, consisting of rapperswill.i.am*, apl.de.ap, Taboo, J. Rey Soul and singer Fergie. Originally an alternative hip hop group, they subsequently refashioned themselves as a more marketable pop-rap act and have become best-selling artists.*
Solitaire is the much beloved choice for killing time in the office or at the home computer. The three most popular solitaire card games are Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell, and these enjoy dizzying heights of popularity as a result of being included as part of Microsoft Windows in the 1990s (for more on this, see this article). What these three games have in common is that they all fit the "builder" genre. That means that they follow the basic formula of many solitaire games, where the overall objective is to arrange cards in ascending order from Ace through to King, for each of the four separate suits. Typically this is done by placing and moving cards within a tableau of rows and columns of cards, where the cards are often arranged in descending order, sometimes with an additional requirement of alternating colours. Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell are by no means unique in this regard, and the genre of "building" games is the most popular archetype within the larger world of solitaire card games. Not all solitaire card games are builder games, but builder games are the most common and arguably the most loved. So which other solitaire games of this type should you know about and should you try first? I've explored the world of solitaire card games extensively myself, and also examined numerous lists about the most popular ones, to help you begin your experience with the best of the best, rather than waste your time with mediocre or obscure games. The six builder games covered in this article are time-tested classics that are most well-known and loved, and represent the best "next step" for anyone wanting to branch out after enjoying Klondike, Spider, or FreeCell. Each of the builder games discussed here represents a small category of its own, because there are many popular variations and related games for each, which I will cover as well. As with my previous articles on solitaire games games, the accompanying links go to Solitaired.com, which is a website where you can play these games for free. But because these games are so common and well known, you'll find that they are included in most software and websites that offer collections of solitaire card games.
== Games With One Deck ==
BAKER'S DOZEN Overview: Baker's Dozen also represents a family of games that plays much like Forty Thieves (see below), but with a single deck. While some variations have a stock, in Baker's Dozen and its most closely related games all the cards are face up, so you have complete information to work with. Game-play: The tableau consists of thirteen columns of four overlapping and face-up cards each, while the four foundations begin empty. To ensure that the tableau doesn't lock up too quickly, Kings are automatically placed to the bottom of each column when they are turned up. Just like in Forty Thieves, only the single top card of each column may be moved, and columns are built downwards, in any colour and suit. Empty spaces in the tableau may not be filled. As you'd expect, the aim is to get the entire deck onto the four foundations, building up each from Ace to King, with each being built upwards by value. Variations: Portuguese Solitaire makes Baker's Dozen slightly easier by allowing empty spaces in the tableau to be filled with Kings, while Spanish Patience allows building on the foundations regardless of suit. Baker's Two Deck is effectively the same as Baker's Dozen but using two decks, with eight foundations and a tableau consisting of ten columns with 10 or 11 cards each. My thoughts: Because this only involves a single deck, Baker's Dozen is much quicker to play than Forty Thieves, and the chances of success are also significantly higher, with as many as 2 of 3 games being easily winnable. The fact that Kings begin at the bottom of the tableau ensures that you don't get stuck too quickly, and being able to build down in the tableau independent of suit ensures a great amount of flexibility. At the same time managing the tableau carefully is still important, especially in cases where empty spaces don't get filled. This makes Baker's Dozen a quicker, simpler, and more accessible game than Forty Thieves and its many variants, while still remaining rewarding and satisfying to play. https://preview.redd.it/uzpzp0dtend61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=28ee57dfe129f73475b95e4b1c12d2910b9a0284 Related games: Castles in Spain requires building down in the tableau to be with alternate colours, and in most versions of this game all but the top card of each column in the tableau begins face-down. Quite similar is Martha and its harder sibling Stewart, where every second card in the tableau begins face-down. Good Measure is a more difficult variation of Baker's Dozen, since it uses ten columns of five cards each, and has more strict rules for building on the foundations; Canister has only eight columns with even more cards on each. Bisley: Special mention can be made of Bisley, which is a classic but more difficult game in this family. In Bisley you use a tableau of thirteen columns of four cards each to build upwards on the four Aces, and simultaneously build downwards on the Kings whenever they become available. CANFIELD Overview: Canfield is one of the all time greats among solitaire games, and is a genuine classic. Also known under names like Demon, Fascination, or Thirteen, you'll find that it appears in almost every book with solitaire card games. According to legend, the game owes its origin and name to Richard A. Canfield, a 19th century gambler. For an initial outlay of $52, Canfield offered gamblers a reward of $5 for every card successfully played to the foundations, with a $500 pot for successfully playing all 52 cards to the foundations. Anything more than 10 cards played to the foundations would get you out of the red, but in most cases the game favoured the casino, indicating how hard the game can be to play. Game-play: Game-play is much like Klondike, with the aim of building up all four suits in order. The key difference is the starting set-up, because there is a single face-down reserve of 13 cards (sometimes called the "demon"), with a 14th card turned up as the first foundation card. The foundations begin with the cards corresponding to the rank of this initially turned up card (rather than the usual Ace), and the idea is to build upwards from there, if necessary "turning the corner" from King through to Ace. Also different from Klondike is the starting tableau, which consists of just four face up cards alongside the reserve. The stock is turned up three cards at a time as in standard Klondike, with as many re-deals as necessary. Any space that appears in the tableau is immediately filled by the top card of the reserve pile, which is always kept face-up. Variations: Given how challenging it can take to win a standard game of Canfield, a number of variants exist that simplify the game slightly, increasing your chances of playing cards to the foundations. Canfield's gambling house is said to have given players the option of going through the stock three times when dealing three cards at a time, or just a single time when dealing one card at a time, and it has been estimated that most games would only see 5 or 6 cards played. The game becomes slightly easier with Canfield Rush, where the cards are first dealt three at a time, then two at a time, and then individually in a final deal of the stock. My thoughts: Canfield does have a strong connection to Klondike, but has a smaller tableau to work with, while also providing a much smaller number of cards (only 13) that are face-down in the tableau at the start of the game. The real key is finding a way to make these cards available and get these into the game. Given how hard the original game is, I prefer playing with the rule that allows dealing of cards individually, and cycling through the stock as often as necessary. Some of the related games discussed below, such as Rainbow and Storehouse, significantly improve your winning chances, and can be very satisfying to play. Certainly if you enjoy Klondike, this game is a great next step to try. https://preview.redd.it/u62f87euend61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=073fd04a2eea40447c0b030072ece279293ffca5 Related games: In Rainbow (also called Rainbow Canfield), cards may be built downwards in the tableau regardless of suit (some versions still require alternating colour), making it much easier to manipulate cards and work your way through the stock and the reserve. Additionally, cards from the reserve aren't automatically added to the tableau, giving you more control and adding strategic options. In most versions of Storehouse (also called Thirteen-Up), you get an additional head-start by placing your initial four cards on the foundations at the outset, while cards from the stock are turned up one at a time. The big difference in this game is that you must build down by suit in the tableau, which really changes how the game feels, because playing from the tableau to the foundation usually involves a whole string of cards at once. Eagle Wing (also called Thirteen-Down) is somewhat similar to Storehouse, and has a uniquely shaped tableau. Dutchess (sometimes spelled Duchess), is a Canfield style game that adds a reserve of four fans, while American Toad is an easy-to-win version of Canfield with two decks. Two Players: Canfield has been adapted for a multi-player game under the common name Pounce, and is also known as Nerts or Racing Demon. A commercial version exists under the name Solitaire Frenzy, and the published game Dutch Blitz is also a close relative. In Pounce, each player uses his own deck and tableau, playing simultaneously and real time onto shared foundations, with the goal is to be the first to get rid of your reserve pile. You can play with as many as half a dozen players or more, and the frenzied action typically proves to be enormous fun! FANGAMES (La Belle Lucie) Overview: La Belle Lucie, also called in English "Lovely Lucy" or "Beautiful Lutecia", is a classic representative of the family of games typically described as Fan games. It's one of the more difficult games in the genre to win, and thus some of its variants and closely related games have arguably become more popular than Lovely Lucy itself. But this classic game of French origin is a good archetype of the genre, and you'll find it included in most books with patience games, and on most solitaire websites and software. Effectively this game is just a tableau of 17 columns of three cards each (plus a column with a single card), but the fan-style arrangement with horizontally overlapping cards that is traditionally associated with this game is a signature feature. Game-play: A single deck is dealt face-up into 17 "fans", each consisting of three overlapping cards, plus an 18th column with just one card. Only one card can be transferred within the tableau at a time, so sequences can't be moved, and building happens downwards according to suit. Empty spaces in the tableau may not be filled. The aim is to build up four foundations by suit from Ace to King. Under the most commonly played rules, once you are unable to place or move any more cards, you take all the cards from the tableau and redeal them into fans with three cards each; there are two such re-deals. Variations: Three Shuffles and a Draw (also called Lovely Lucy With a Draw) adds a merci play, where you can move a single blocked card once during the course of the game. While La Belle Lucie is sometimes called The Fan, this is also the name of a popular variation which allows exposed Kings to be played to empty spaces in the tableau, making the game less frustrating and far more achievable. Trefoil is identical to La Belle Lucie except that the Aces begin on the foundations, resulting in an initial tableau of just 16 fans. My thoughts: This is a terrific single-deck game, because you have perfect information given that all the cards are face-up, and the large number of columns/fans means that buried cards have at most only a couple of cards blocking them. La Belle Lucie is very difficult to win under the original and strict rules, especially because empty fans may not be refilled, and cards beneath an unplayable exposed card (e.g. a King) are permanently inaccessible. The merci rule that lets you unblock one card is virtually essential, and usually a standard way of playing, but even after two redeals the game can still be hard to finish, depending on the draw. Some of the variants and related games that simplify things slightly are more satisfying. This is one of my favourite solitaire games to play with a single deck, since it is less luck-dependent than many other popular single-deck games like Klondike. https://preview.redd.it/wbkhlyawend61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=062ced3c363b906d2a0145ac742cccd257092c30 Related games: One of the more popular games in this family is Super Flower Garden, where building downward is permitted regardless of suit; with good play under these rules the game can be completed almost every single time. Shamrocks takes the essence of La Belle Lucie, but implements several other changes to make the game much easier: Kings are moved to the bottom of the fan during the deal, and you may build up as well as down on the fans (which are limited in size to 3 cards) and can ignore suits; to prevent it being too easy there are no redeals. Similar games: Games in the Baker's Dozen family (covered previously above) are sometimes classified as Fan games as well, because the game-play is quite similar, with 13 columns/fans of four cards each, but the absence of re-deals gives them a different feel. Bristol is often played with a tableau consisting of fans as well, but there are only eight fans of three cards each, while the rest of the deck functions as a stock that you deal onto three waste or reserve piles. Despite some hidden information, those who appreciate Fan games are likely to appreciate Bristol as well. Intelligence is a two-deck game in the style of La Belle Lucie, while the relatively easy two-deck game Buffalo Bill relies on reserve cells rather than tableau building. CASTLEGAMES (Beleaguered Castle) Overview: Beleaguered Castle is the most famous member of what can be called the "Castle" family of solitaire games, and is a classic game that you'll find in most books of Patience. This game sometimes also goes under the alternative names of Laying Siege and Sham Battle. It is an excellent example of an open solitaire game, because all the cards are dealt face-up at the start, so you begin with perfect information. Game-play: With the four Aces placed in a vertical column as foundations, the rest of the cards are dealt face-up into four rows of six overlapping cards each on either side, forming a tableau consisting of two "wings". As expected, the goal is to build all four foundations in order from Ace through King. Cards may only be moved within the tableau one at a time, rather than in stacks, so only the end card of each row within the tableau may be moved, either to the foundations, to another row in descending sequence regardless of suit, or to an empty space in the tableau. Variations: In Streets and Alleys, the Aces don't begin in the starting foundations at all, but are included in the initial tableau of dealt cards, so that the four rows on the left side of the foundations each consist of seven cards each rather than six. Thomas Warfield's Stronghold adds a storage cell to Streets and Alleys, to give more strategic options for movement. Citadel improves Beleaguered Castle's initial position slightly by allowing you to build straight to the foundations during the deal, while Selective Castle lets you choose the rank of the foundation cards after the deal. Some solitaire sites offer a Beleaguered Cities variant (sometimes simply called Castle), which makes the game much easier by allowing you to build in ascending or descending sequence (still regardless of suit), and this ensures that you can nearly always complete the game successfully. My thoughts: Despite the unusual signature "wing" setup, strictly speaking the mechanics of Beleagured Castle are like most other solitaire games (especially Forty Thieves, see below), but with a single deck, eight columns of six cards each, and no stock. The strict rules for movement and building within the tableau make this a very difficult game to complete successfully. Ideally you want to be able to get one of the rows entirely clear, to give you more options for manipulation within the tableau. Even so, being only able to move the outside card on each row is quite limiting, and as a result you will often be thwarted by the luck of the draw early on, especially if high cards bury some lower cards, and so this classic game can be somewhat frustrating. You'll often find yourself quickly redealing and starting over, hoping for better luck the next time around; one advantage of a digital version is that you can keep redealing until you get a deal that seems like a reasonable starting draw. The simpler variant Castle is a good place to start with this game, since it increases your chances of success drastically. https://preview.redd.it/6bc5x6zwend61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c46244357066a57635272d995c07235c72b3103f Related games: Fortress operates on a similar concept, but there are five rows on each side of the foundations instead of four. In addition, you are restricted to building on the same suit, but you may build in ascending or descending sequence. Aces start within the tableau (thus two rows have six instead of five cards). The variant Chessboard applies the same principle as Selective Castle, by letting you choose the rank of the foundation cards after the deal (building around the corner on the foundations as required), in order to take better advantage of the cards you have been dealt. Zerline is a German game where Queens are high, and helps by adding a four-card storage area. SIR TOMMYGAMES Overview: Sir Tommy (Old Patience, Try Again, Numerica) is also known as Old Patience, which reflects its origin as the oldest known patience game, and possible ancestor of all others. The average person may not have heard of it, but it deserves a place on this list because this is a game from which so many other solitaire games are derived, including many more familiar ones. It is at the head of a family of games where cards in the tableau can't be moved after being placed, and that's a unique quality that also makes it quite challenging to win. Game-play: Suits are irrelevant in this game, and the aim is to build four foundations from Ace to King. You deal the deck face-up one at a time, and the tableau has four columns (or waste piles); dealt cards can be played on any column but cannot be moved from one to another. So while it's still technically a building game because you are building up the foundations, there is no packing in the tableau to assist you with this. Variations: Some variants (e.g. Auld Lang Syne, Tam O'Shanter) turn Sir Tommy into even an simpler luck-based game nearly impossible to win, while others are extremely strategic like the well-known Calculation. Amazons is an interesting version played with a smaller deck that has the goal of building to the Queens (= Amazons), and is best played digitally given the amount of redealing. Other variants make the game easier (and for me, more enjoyable) by increasing the number of tableaus (Strategy, Lady Betty, and Last Chance) or redeals (Acquaintance), or make it more interesting by requiring building by colours (Puss in the Corner, and Colours, Alternate). My thoughts: Good players can win as many as 20% of their games, and storing cards in the right order on the four columns is critical, because you want to avoid having low valued cards blocked by higher ones, or having too many cards of the same number in one column. Reserving a pile for Kings and another for high cards is often a good strategy. Even so, it's a hard game to win and can be frustrating. I recommend trying some of the easier variants as a way to enjoy this game; there's a good reason so many variants have evolved from the original over time. It's a large family that includes many solitaire variants, and these are well worth trying and exploring. https://preview.redd.it/1hydbd93fnd61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=588e8636d70c42b2b914e70a77581629b3edc8be Related games: Several two-deck games are in the Sir Tommy family, including Fanny, Frog (also called Toad), Fly, and Grand Duchess, most of which involve using a reserve. Several two-deck games use similar mechanics but operate with a larger 20 card tableau in the style of the simple game Carpet, but involve building both up and down on the foundations; for me personally these are the most fun of all Sir Tommy variants, and include Twenty (also called Sly Fox), Colorado, Grandmother's Patience (also called Grandmamma's Game), and Grandfather's Patience - all excellent games. Calculation: Calculation deserves special mention, and has become a classic in its own right. What makes it unique is that the foundations are built up by one, two, three, and four respectively, and it requires a lot of skill. The variant Betsy Ross is more luck-dependent but is also easier to complete successfully. YUKON Overview: Yukon first appeared in a 1949 book on solitaire games, and has since exploded in popularity. This single deck solitaire game was partly inspired by Klondike, which is of course the most popular solitaire card game of all time. But because Yukon has no stock and more flexible rules for movement of stacks within the tableau, it allows a lot more scope for thinking. Game-play: While inspired and indebted to Klondike, Yukon creates a game with a very different feel by removing the requirement that stacks of cards must be in alternating sequence in order to be moved. In other words, you can move any stack to a legal card within the tableau, regardless of the sequence of the cards in that stack. While this makes the game easier, another significant change makes it harder: there is no stock that you deal. So all the cards are in the tableau at the outset, and you'll have to manipulate the tableau cleverly to uncover face-down cards and build all four suits onto the four foundations from Ace through King. Variations: To make Yukon slightly easier, a couple of variants alter things slightly to simplify the gameplay, such as removing the requirement that only Kings can be placed in an empty space in the tableau (this variation is sometimes called Great River). Some digital implementations give the option of reducing the number of suits used, such as in Yukon One Suit, which you can nearly always win, while still having to think carefully. My thoughts: The rules for manipulating the tableau give you more options than Klondike, and thus more to consider and think about. Both Yukon and Russian Solitaire (mentioned under "related games" below) are extremely popular solitaire games, because they are simultaneously more challenging and more rewarding than Klondike style games. Skill plays more of a role, and there are players so dedicated to Yukon that they have played it thousands of times. In regular Yukon you can expect to win as much as 1 in 4 games, but the added level of difficulty in Russian Solitaire reduces that to as little as once in 20 games. The key is to bring the face-down cards into play as soon as possible. https://preview.redd.it/650mlj93fnd61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=683c006a12bdf74ad8921bd619fed40a8fb14405 Related games: Russian Solitaire makes Yukon harder by only allowing you to build down in the tableau with cards of the same suit, instead of in alternating colours, and it is an extremely popular game in its own right. This requirement is also in place with Alaska, but may build in ascending or descending order in the tableau, which makes it easier to win than Russian Solitaire. Australian Patience is another popular spin-off from Yukon, and adds a stock which is dealt one at a time, while the entire 7x4 tableau starts face up; however this can feel like it's more about careful observation than decision making. Many other Yukon inspired games exist, including games which add things like a reserve, storage cells, or extra decks. Scorpion: Special mention should be made of popular game Scorpion, which some categorize as part of the Yukon family, and the rules for moving unarranged stacks in Yukon may even originate in Scorpion. However, Scorpion uses Spider's requirement that stacks from Ace to King of the same suit must be assembled within the tableau before being discarded. Scorpion variants include Wasp, Three Blind Mice, Chinese Solitaire, and others.
== Games With Two Decks ==
FORTY THIEVES (Napoleon at St Helena) Overview: Forty Thieves is a popular and classic game played with two decks, and is also included in most books with patience games. It also goes under the alternate name Napoleon at St Helena (not to be confused with a different solitaire game called "Saint Helena" or "Napoleon's Favorite"), and tradition says that this is the solitaire game Napoleon played while in exile on the island of St Helena. The game also goes under other names, including Roosevelt at San Juan. Its simple rules means that many variations exist, many of which are among the more strategic and satisfying versions of solitaire games that you'll find anywhere. Carefully working through the stock pile and manipulating the discard pile are a big element of successful play. Game-play: A tableau is dealt with ten columns, each with four overlapping and face-up cards. Strict tableau building rules apply, because only the single top card of each column may be moved, and only onto a card that is the next highest rank of the same suit; any card can be placed into a space that becomes available in the tableau. The remaining stock of 64 cards is turned up one card at a time, with no redeals. The goal is to get all the cards onto the eight foundations from Ace through King in each suit. Variations: In its strict and classic form, even with good play Forty Thieves is difficult to win, so many variants exist that seek to make the game easier. In some of these, the Aces begin as starting foundations ( San Juan Hill). In others, the tableau is not built down by cards of the same suit but by alternating colours (e.g. Streets), or by any suit other than its matching one (Indian). Some variations allow entire sequences of cards to be moved (Josephine, Forty Bandits, Ali Baba), or combine this with having tableau building in alternating colours (Number Ten, Rank and File, Emperor) or tableau building in any suit (Little Forty). In other variations, multiple redeals of the stock are permitted. My thoughts: Game-play is very tight in the strict form of the game. It's not always a good idea to play a card just because you can, because you may block cards within the tableau that you need. You also need to pay close attention to duplicates, since two decks are in play. As a result, careful planning and consideration is needed. Unused stock typically ends up into an increasingly large face-up discard pile, but in the latter parts of the game skilful play often makes it possible to dig back through this and complete the game. This usually proves most satisfying when playing with one of the variants that makes the game slightly easier, to increase your chances of pulling out a win. Even with these variants, you'll have to play skillfully, making the Forty Thieves family of solitaire games one of the more popular choices for those who like a longer experience that is thoughtful, challenging, and yet solvable, and where skill plays even more of a role than luck. https://preview.redd.it/p251re93fnd61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9521b0ca4458c88d6cd679fdcaf37b4a151a5479 More variations: Instead of 10 tableau piles, some variations increase this to 12 piles (Blockade, Napoleon's Square, Corona) or 13 piles (Lucas, Waning Moon); or decrease it to 9 piles (Maria) or 8 piles (Forty and Eight, Congress, Parliament, Diplomat, Red and Black), each with different combinations of rules for tableau building. Games with just 6 piles (Blind Alleys, Pas Seul) or 5 piles (Double Rail) begin to feel much like Klondike. Related games: Many other games take the Forty Thieves style concept and adjust it in more significant ways. In Interchange (more difficult), Breakwater, and Alternations, the initial tableau includes face-down and face-up cards. The very popular Thieves of Egypt begins with a pyramid shaped tableau. Busy Aces is a straight forward game in the style of Forty Thieves that is at the head of its own family, which includes the much simpler Fortune's Favor, a simple game ideal for beginners. For a terrific overview of all the Forty Thieves related games and their different nuances, consult Thomas Warfield's excellent complete guide to Forty Thieves types games. CONCLUSION This is by no means a comprehensive list that includes all builder-style solitaire games. But along with Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell, these seven additional games - Baker's Dozen, Beleaguered Castle,Canfield, Forty Thieves, La Belle Lucie, Sir Tommy, Yukon, and Forty Thieves - and the many related games that belong to their families, are the most common and popular forms of solitaire games that involve building. They have inspired many solitaire games like them, and have stood the test of time well. If you enjoy Klondike, which is the most popular version of solitaire in the world, then Canfield and Yukon are natural games to explore next. Beleaguered Castle can be a little frustrating due to the strict rules and dependency on the luck of the draw, and even the other games in its family can be quite challenging. I'd recommend it only for more experienced and dedicated players, and would instead suggest next exploring Baker's Dozen and the games in the "Fan" family inspired by La Belle Lucie. Their style of play is somewhat similar to Forty Thieves and its many siblings, which double the number of cards in the game by adding a second deck, and also adds a stock pile and discard pile you must manage. Forty Thieves type games are among the best you'll find for those who like a more challenging, thoughtful, and longer solitaire experience. Author's note: I first published this article at PlayingCardDeckshere.
SILVER TOKYO KEYS SHOULD NOT BE RUN. THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH THE SCALING OF EXP OR LEVELS CAUSING THEM TO GIVE WAY LESS EXP THAN INTENDED. About half the people I've talked to have this issue and half don't -- the cause is currently unknown. If you really need to run them due to space issues, trade them into gold keys under the swap shop.
CASINO SG IS HERE! Same with Battle Arena which gives SG.
Ship 4 is now open!
SHIFTA DRINK HAS BEEN BUFFED. This used to give +20% bonus base attack, and now gives +50%. This makes the shifta drink MUCH better than before, able to compete with Photon Drink! This also means Katana Gear changes for Braver SHOULD be in now, but I do not have confirmation yet.
Zig has client orders for crafting. These give Artisan Seals, which primarily are used for getting more Lambda Grinders -- but have additional things to trade in for as well. You will need to do the first mission in order to unlock 3 more orders which can be completed weekly.
New title rewards for reaching 500 titles giving the Whiteal 12* unit set. 300 Titles gives 200 SG, 350 titles gives 200 SG as well. The full set of the Whiteal 12* units can be seen here, although i need a better character to screenshot on: https://i.imgur.com/BAXj0RO.jpeg
New best Franka's Cafe as seen above as well! This Franka's Cafe features a VERY DETAILED 30 minute Day/Night cycle. It's one of the best places to take screenshots, take them while you can.
New titles for crafting added.
New rings have been added. Some cannot be received yet due to the relevant Extreme Quest not being available.
Daily Craft has been added, with 7 daily crafts available per day.
New Free Field has been added. If you see a gigantic pink demon LOOT EVERYTHING HE DROPS. Doom Break I, II, and III are all very valuable, and Eastern/Fullvegas/Escarde Soul should also be looked out for.
Dailies and Weeklies will now give out BONUS KEYS.
New Collection Files are out. Revolsio's are pre-grinded to +30 and so will make for incredible grind fodder. 13 star pets are also in. On top, the Cookies for these Collection Files are some of the best cookies you can get -- giving +30 Atk and +120 HP!
Tokyo XH Time Attack is here -- although this doesn't mean much for most people.
STATIONARY ROCKBEAR for Damage Calculation Practice Quest is in!
You can now buy PA Fragments for 2 excubes per at the excube shop.
Rising Weapon Badge 3s are in. There are no units to buy.
EDIT 18:32 EDT: The visual damage cap has been lifted! You can now see your damage numbers being higher than 999,999. This has no functional change, as you could hit for more than 999,999 already.
Rarity 14 pets are in the game... what? Why. Even as a summoner main I'm confused. Marron confirmed from Naverius Ultimate.
Pet candies are now tradable outside of 14* parfaits which we don't even have yet. Can't think of any other exceptions.
Vadis Scythe (AKA Vades Scythe on JP) drops from the new urgent quest. This is a slightly better version of Form Scythe!
STORY HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY FOR CENSORSHIP. No more details as I don't want to spoil too much, and I won't give any opinions as I don't wish to stir up debates.
Missing:
Rarity 12 Unit Ring Skills. Why? Come on, you can't just introduce new rings and not add them.
CRAFTING SHOP IS ENTIRELY MISSING. This means you can not trade 5 of a PA disk type into another PA disk type. This also means you can't upgrade mats, nor can you get the level 2-4 free crafting machines. This doesn't seem intentional but we will see.
Level 17 Discs for 20 excubes. sega pls
If I have missed anything you feel is important or easy to miss feel free to add it. There's a lot to go through right now and a lot of changes that aren't listed. I'm also extremely busy getting weeklies and shit done.
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
several years back evangelicals weren't comfortable at all saying trump was a christian. before and during trump's campaign conservative evangelicals were all over the map on where they stood concerning his faith: in 2015 dobson said,'I am very wary of Donald Trump,” Dobson said in his email, citing Trump’s business in gambling. “I would never vote for a king pin within that enterprise. Trump’s tendency to shoot from the hip and attack those with whom he disagrees would be an embarrassment to the nation if he should become our Chief Executive. I don’t really believe Trump is a conservative. Finally, I would never under any circumstance vote for Hillary Clinton'. in 2016, and to this day, dobson says on his 'family institute' website, 'If anything, this man is a baby Christian who doesn’t have a clue about how believers think, talk and act.' in 2011 franklin graham told christianity today: ' “No question, the guy’s got a lot of baggage. He owns casinos. He’s had multiple marriages. I did not endorse him.” when trump evangelical bouncer, robert jeffress, defended trump on fox news, regarding stormy daniels' announcement she had a sexual encounter with Trump and was paid to keep quiet before the election, Jeffress explained [to] Juan Williams that evangelicals 'knew they weren’t voting for an altar boy.' eric metaxas in responding to the hollywood access video of trump, [in] an email to 'RNS [... said he] rejected the characterization that he has strongly backed Trump, saying his support “has always been tepid and tremendously qualified." [...] in addition, 'James MacDonald, pastor of the Chicago-area megachurch Harvest Bible Chapel and a member of Trump’s evangelical advisory board, also withdrew his support after the video aired, calling the candidate “letcherous and worthless.' in 2016 mike huckabee tweeted: 'Trump may be a car wreck, but at least his car is pointed in the right direction. Hillary is a drunk-driver going the wrong way on the freeway'. the family research council president, tony perkins, put his support this way: 'You know what? Nations are built on calculated risk. Yeah. You could say we’re taking a calculated risk, but we’re at a point where we have to as a nation because what we have seen in the last seven and a half years has put the nation fiscally and culturally on the edge.' of course, we can't forget jerry falwell's endorsement as early as january of 2016: [...] “In my opinion, Donald Trump lives a life of loving and helping others as Jesus taught in the great commandment,” he said. “He cannot be bought, he's not a puppet on a string like many other candidates ... who have wealthy donors as their puppet masters,” he said. “And that is a key reason why so many voters are attracted to him.” at this time there's no direct evidence, nor cohen's testimony that there was a quid pro quo for falwell's endorsement. the falwell's and trump's have been friends since 2012 when trump spoke at liberty univ. it was falwell's endorsement that opened up the evangelical base to trump and ultimately cut ted cruz out of the race. but it can't go without saying that knowing the past 4 or 5 years of both trump and the falwell's lives, the entanglement is very deep, as you will see. so, given the lack of evangelical consensus, the lack of a solid biblical argument, and the life of trump, the location of where to put him, while retaining some evangelical dignity and avoiding hypocrisy, a charismatic evangelical named lance wallnau enters the story with his best selling book, 'God's Chaos Candidate' on oct of 2016, as well as his piece in 'charisma news', 'Why I Believe Trump Is the Prophesied President'. wallnau argued trump 'is a “modern-day Cyrus,” an ancient Persian king chosen by God to “navigate in chaos.' he even added a little numerology: trump's the 45th prez and cyrus is god's anointed in isaiah 45, so trump's anointed. makes sense right? anyway, aside from us living in a democracy, the idea grew, even to the point of netanyahu comparing him to cyrus. now many evangelicals are compare him to king cyrus. two years have now passed and it was a month before the 2018 midterms and a movie came out called, 'the trump prophecy.' the film was a partnership between 'reelworksstudios' and (-wait for it-) liberty univ's arts program, where it attempted to make the comparison of cyrus and trump. popularity grew when fox news' jeanine pirro touted the film, along with many other radio and tv hosts . while the idea of the cyrus-trump connection is still being floated it doesn't make sense now. why? due to trump openly stating he's changed his faith. more specifically, when trump himself, a couple weeks ago became a non denominationalist, it closed the personal distance between him and jesus, it, theoretically, should bring him closer to jesus, which negated the cyrus typology, which gave him distance from jesus; that's the point of changing one's faith isn't it, to get closer to god. as that distance is now gone, as cyrus was a pagan, and trump is claiming he's a reflective christian -a genius-, having deepened his faith, how can he still be compared to a pagan king? -especially with being surrounded by evangelicals for 4 years. over the past 40 years non denominationalists have grown over 400%, and a 1/3 of all evangelicals are nondens.. who are the nondens? they're basically the largest protestant denomination, and made up many southern baptists, with provisos.. it's unusual for a very stable genius billionaire, to self identify with nondens, but paula white has a 6,000 sq ft home, former trump faith advisor in the 1950s (check out 'the family' on netfix). so, perhaps trump is an eisenhower type, having changed his faith for political profit? if he did, one thing is certain; he can't use the cyrus connection any longer, for attempting to now makes him a public con. trump has stated, 'i'm the chosen one.' he was joking, somewhat, but like so many of his supposed jokes, they usually appear two-sided; they're like a reverse irony found under a bulimic joke, like: “Suburban women, will you please like me? - Please. Please,” he said in PA last week. his other "jokes" we have to wait several hours or a day later to discover if it really was a joke: “When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people, you’re going to find more cases,” Trump said. “So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’. again, '"And then I see the disinfectant, that knocks it out in a minute.. and is there a way you can do something like, by injection, inside, or almost to clean... It sounds interesting to me.' and again, 'russia, if you're listening, i hope you're able to find the 30k emails that are missing.'. these dormant jokes a day or so later are fairly common and have created lots of confusion. i bring this up 'cause trump uses religious language more than any other past presidents in a 100 years, more than twice as eisenhower, and figuring out what he's really saying regarding faith, in politics, isn't any better than his policy discussions, and some might say it's worse -- as he weaponizes/attacks it, too:
when one looks at trump's photo op at st. john's church, as the clergy and protesting faithful and others were cleared with force and gas, just moments later trump took their place on the church sidewalk, standing alone, fixated on cameras, fumbling a bible, then holding it next to his head, never praying, nor mentioning god. during that time, he said two times, 'we have the greatest country in the world,' then walked to the front steps of the church, stood with his back to the steps, as the other pics must have somehow lacked his authority, called some of his staff and bill barr to stand with him while they posed for more pics, stating twice again, ' we have the greatest country' or words to that affect. here one say that trump weaponized the church equating it to a dominating power over those who disagree with trump's edicts. it was a symbol for what constitutes christian nationalism, in my view.
“I don’t like people who use their faith as justification for doing what they know is wrong,” the president said. “Nor do I like people who say, ‘I pray for you,’ when they know that that’s not so.” Later, in front of dozens of members of Congress at his acquittal celebration at the White House, Trump singled out Pelosi and Romney by name, going further by accusing her of neither praying for him, nor praying at all. “She doesn’t pray. She may pray, but she prays for the opposite. But I doubt she prays at all,” the president said.
...
trump said of ted cruz: "but I've never seen anybody that lied as much as Ted Cruz. He goes around saying he's a Christian. I don't know. You're going to have to really have to study that. yes"
a trump tweet on cruz: 'How can Ted Cruz be and Evangelical Christian when he lies so much and is so dishonest?
trump in ohio:'[biden] will take away your guns, take away your Second Amendment. No religion, no anything.” [...]there will be no god is biden is elected', and biden 'will hurt the bible, hurt god,'
finally: Trump responded swiftly at a campaign event in South Carolina, saying: “For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful.” “No leader, especially a religious leader, has the right to question another man’s religion or faith,” he told a packed room at a golf course resort.
of course, trump's not the only person to weaponize god-talk. pastor paula white does it as well: christians will 'stand before god if they vote against trump'. of course, she's known as the most adamant evangelical that says trump is a christian. sadly, she's had her run-ins with heresy regarding the trinity, is a prosperity gospel preacher, gone off the rails publicly more than once, has been investigated by the senate, published a book in oct of 2019, that 'christiantiy today' called, disturbing, depressing, narcissistic, dishonest, materialistic, lacking self-awareness, shallow, and trumpesque. so, she's really something -- and of course she's probably trump's top spiritual adviser that works in the white house. the same failure of christian virtues can be said of jerry falwell jr, the president of one of the nation's largest christian colleges, but truly, his narrative doesn't need repeating, except the new sage of he and his wife's game of 'would you rather'.. the same also goes for pastor franklin graham, who is a xenophobe and weaponized 'opposition to President Donald Trump to “almost a demonic power”, metaxis agreed, although he didn't like the 'almost'. finally, to end our sampling, there's pastor robert jeffress statements that anti-trump 'evangelicals are morons. They are absolutely spineless morons, and they cannot admit that they were wrong.' [...] “We cannot afford to be like German Christians who, in the rise of the evil reign of Adolf Hitler, just remained neutered. They remained silent. And you saw what happened there,” Jeffress said. “I think there’s a similar wave of godlessness that is rising in our country right now, and we must push back against that tide.' this is not an argument of guilt by association, these individuals have shown evidence of a failure to abide with the teachings of jesus and the church. their miscarriage is aligned with trump's, and perhaps more so, as they for decades have studied christianity. yet, they aren't running the country and lying daily about the covid virus as thousands die weekly; they aren't constantly attacking and damaging the usps,, mail in ballots,, the press, race, climate science, fauci, the fbi, even saying doctors are profiting off of covid deaths and inflating the dead numbers, attacking impeachment accusers, his sexual misconduct accusers, gold star families ...the list of trump attacks are almost found everywhere and everyday now. therefore, if he's not cyrus, not a christian, is he a con? i think the evidence is abundantly clear. for much of the attacks and weaponizing of people, institutions, and things, the gop has also been silent. they are silent on race, the media, even their own institutions. i'd be something if they came out and supported him in numbers, but they don't. paul states in 1 cor: 11: Do as I do, for I am doing as Christ did. i don't see that happening much in the gop or trump's staff or trump himself, given he's the most religiously rhetorical president in over a 100 years, and that the nondens are the true believers; in fact, the evidence appears to indicate the opposite conclusion. donald trump is a con of the highest order, a chronic liar, a cheat, and devious. therefore, evangelicals should ask themselves ‘what would jesus do about this?' the answer would be, 'don't vote for trump.’
The biggest investigation of Las Vegas hasn't been able to uncover the reason why 9/11 hijackers traveled to Sin City
On September 11 of 2001, 19 men hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and into an open field in Shanksville PA. These men were al-Qaeda terrorists doing the deeds in the name of a holy war against the West and not much about the attack remains a mystery unless you subscribe to the inside job theory, which isn't my case. What authorities haven't been able to explain is the hijackers' several trips to Las Vegas despite what has been dubbed to be the broadest investigation in city. All these trips happened within a few months before the attacks, but the men behind them left very little evidence their activities in the area. TIMELINE May 24 - Marwan Al-Shehhi, the pilot who crashed the United Airlines Flight 175 into the South Towers of the WTC, arrived to Las Vegas from San Francisco and rented a room at Travelodge as a walk in customer. Once there, he called eight other motels. May 25 - Al-Shehhi walked in the St. Luis Manor, a hotel that wasn't on the call list. At 12:52 pm, he rented a different car, but didn't return the first car until 3:58pm. The unaccounted mileage in both vehicles summed up to 29 miles. FBI believes that these unusual patterns were a conscious attempt to avoid detection. May 27 - Al-Shehhi made it to New York. June 7 - Ziad Jarrah, pilot of the United Airlines 93 that crashed in Shanskville while on its way to the Capitol Building, arrived to Las Vegas and rented a car at 3:13 pm. He was accompanied by an unidentified man described as "middle eastern looking". When Jarrah asked for directions to Circus Circus Hotel and Casino, the a rent-a-car employee tried to give him an answer but was interrupted by the unidentified man who suggested another route. The man's knowledge of the address suggests that he was familiar with the area or that he had been in Las Vegas before. June 10 - Jarrah took a flight to the Baltimore Washington International Airport leaving his rented car with a mileage exceeding 200 miles and no trace of his Las Vegas whereabouts . June 28 - Mohamed Atta, pilot of American Airlines Flight 11 that crashed into the North Tower of WTC and leader or the hijackers, arrived to Las Vegas at 2:41 pm and rented a car at 4:25 pm. At 6:40 pm Atta established an account at Cyberzone internet café and used the computer for one hour and thirty five minutes. June 29 - Atta checked into Econo Lodge Motel at 1:01 pm. He logged in at Cyberzone again at 2:21 and 6:21 pm. Once done, the FBI believes he went back to his hotel. June 30 - Atta accessed his Cyberzone accounts at 1:56 pm, 6:30 pm and 9:33 pm. The mileage analysis indicated that he returned to his hotel afterwards. This day as well as the day before, Atta had placed several call to Al-Shehhi as well as to two different number in Houston, TX. One number was unassigned and the other one belonged to a mobile salesman. July 1 - Atta returned his rented vehicle at the airport at 5:12 am and took a flight to New York that connected in Denver. The vehicle had 73 unaccounted miles of usage which the FBI believes would cover a round trip to the Hoover Dam. July 31 - Waleed al-Shehri, hijacker of the Flight 11, took a flight from San Francisco to Las Vegas where he stayed for 45 minutes while waiting for another flight to Miami. It is unclear to me whether this was a tactical flight - the hijackers were believed to take flights to study their trajectory as well as entrance to the cockpit-, or just a connection. August 13 - Hani Hanjour and Nawaf al-Hazmi, pilot and hijackers of the American Airlines Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon arrived to Las Vegas at 11:18 am. At 11:58 am, Atta arrived to Las Vegas to and rented a vehicle at 1:46 pm. The FBI assumed that the three men met, but no activity from Hanjour and al-Hazim was recorded from that trip. Atta accessed a room at the Econo Lodge at 2:55 pm and connected at the Cyberzone at 11:26 pm, getting back to his room at 12:46 am. August 14 - Atta returned his rented car at 11:09 am leaving no unaccounted mileage and took a flight outside Las Vegas. Hanjour and al-Hazmi boarded a flight at 11:29 am. THEORIES A) Al-Qaeda was looking to target Las Vegas area As noted in Atta's first trip, the unaccounted mileage added up to a round trip to the dam from his hotel. However, Atta's vehicle was not among the recorded license plates in the parking garage of the dam. If the hijackers had connections in Las Vegas area, which seems to be the case with Jarrah, Atta might have traveled to Boulder City or any other town close to the lake and gotten the dam with someone else in a different vehicle. It should also be noted that both Atta and al-Shehhi stayed in hotels close to the Stratosphere, a hotel and casino located in the highest building of the city. Being known as the Sin City, Las Vegas could have been a attractive target for jihadists looking to rebel against what they perceived to be the westernization of their home countries and culture. B) Hijackers were exchanging information with other Al-Qaeda members The FBI emphasized the short duration on hijacker's trip to Las Vegas saying that it was just long enough to exchange information. Authorities believe that Atta was not only looking at flight on the East coast but he also kept in communication with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, a potential 20th hijacker who had been denied entry to the United States and acted as an intermediary between Al-Qaeda and the other hijackers. Jarrah's mystery companion and the complete lack of evidence of his whereabouts point to possible terrorist acquaintances residing or staying in Las Vegas that are yet to be identified. The FBI summary mentions two persons of interest: Lotfi Raissi and Zakaria Hassan Ibrahim. Raissi started attending the Sawyer School of Aviation in 1998 one month after Hanjour quit. Two days after Jarrah left Las Vegas, Raissi arrived to the city with his wife and stayed there until June 18. His stay didn't overlap with that of the hijackers and he claims he went to Las Vegas to celebrate his honeymoon. On September 21, Raissi was arrested near Colnbrook, UK, where he had been living at the time of the attacks. Prosecutor Arvinder Sambei claimed that the FBI had footage of him celebrating an event with Hanjour and that his flight logs from March 2000 to June 2001 were missing. It has also been claimed that Raissi was training five of the hijackers. No such proof was presented to the courts and the man in the footage turned out to be his cousin and not Hanjour, as it had been previously claimed. Hassan Ibrahim had previously been convicted for trafficking in fraudulent passports and visas. He was the person to provide Mir Aimal Kansi, CIA headquarters shooter , and Mohammed A. Salameh, perpetrator of the 1993 WTC bombing, with fake documents. He was reported to have spent most of July in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, not much information about this individual is accessible so I could not verify if any connection between him and the hijackers was formally established. C) Hijackers went to Las Vegas as a final pleasure stop before committing suicide This theory was briefly mentioned by Evan Thomas, journalist, and quoted by criminologist Adam Lankford in his psychological autopsy of Mohamed Atta. According to the author, Atta and the other hijackers - Hanjour and al-Hazmi - might have visited Las Vegas because maybe " they wished to be fortified for their mission by visiting a shrine to American decadence". While not much is known about Hanjour and al-Hazmi, Atta has been alluded to by the people who knew him as a sexually repressed man who experienced extreme discomfort around women and the mildest hint of sexuality. When years of repression build up an uncontrollable sexual urge, the individual might end up participating is risky sexual activities. Nevertheless, the circumstances of the trip make sex and gambling very unlikely motives. Their stays were short, happened across different months and there was no evidence of them visiting casinos or any similar venues. Strippers supposedly identified al-Shehhi as one of their patrons, but evidence was not conclusive. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that a quick visit to the strip club was anything more than a fun opportunity while pursuing a bigger goal. I personally believe that the hijackers visited Las Vegas to coordinate the attacks with other members from Al-Qaeda who flew under the radar (no pun intended). SOURCES: Las Vegas investigative summary Theories on why 9/11 hijackers visited Las Vegas David C. Henley: 9/11 hijackers visits to Nevada remain a mystery Wikipedia entry for Mir Aimal Kansi Wikipedia entry for Mohammed A. Salameh Cracking the terror code
6/17 Edit: Great info guys. Keep it coming! If something changes, please let me know. I reached out to the mods asking about putting together a post to collect minimums for craps tables in Vegas and other places. If this post gains traction, it may get a sticky. It may also help cut down on the amount of posts asking for this info. I'll try to keep the body of the post updated. If information is correct, let me know. Update 6/18 - Nevada Gaming Board announced masks required at table games in Nevada. I haven't heard that this is being enforced yet. 6/30: Keep reporting, especially any of you heading to Vegas. We would love to hear what the mins are on the strip Let me know what casino, day or night and the minimums:
Vegas Strip Casino
Day Min
Night Min
Dividers
Comments
Aria
15
25
Unknown
Bellagio
10
25
Yes, all tables
Poker tables open
Caesars
15
25
No
Poker tables open
Casino Royale
N/A
N/A
N/A
Table Games not open
Cosmo
100
50-100
Encore
50
100
Yes, on some tables
Updated 6/16
Excalibur
10-15
Unknown
10 crapless, 15 regular
Flamingo
Rare (5) - 15
25
Harrah's
15
25
No
Confirmed no dividers per 6/16 Youtube video
Linq
15
25
No
Luxor
10
15
Mandalay Bay
N/A
N/A
MGM Grand
10
25
Yes, all tables
NY/NY
10
15
Yes, all tables
Osheas
Unknown
15
Paris
N/A
N/A
No
Opened 6/18 - Masks required at tables.
Planet Hollywood
N/A
N/A
No open date announced
Rio
N/A
N/A
No open date announced
Strat
Day
10
Unknown
Treasure Island
5
15
Venetian
Unknown
25
No
Wynn
25-50
50-100
Yes, on some tables
Updated 6/16
Downtown Casino
Day Min
Night Min
Dividers
Comments
Binions
10
10
California
10
10
The D
10
15
No glass
El Cortez
10
10
Yes, some tables
2 tables
Four Queens
5
5
No
Confirmed thru 6/14 Youtube video
Fremont
10
10
Golden Gate
5
5
From 6/9 on Vegas Message Board (no carnival games)
Sams Town
15
15
1 table
Offstrip Casino
Day Min
Night Min
Dividers
Comments
Aliente
10
10
Boulder Station
10
10
Cannery
5
5
up to 2 tables, a mask was provided but not required
Ellis Island
5
5
1 table
Gold Coast
5
5
Green Valley Ranch
10
10
2 tables open
The Orleans
10
25
up to 4 tables, I was asked to wear a mask
Palace Station
10
10
Unknown
Palms
N/A
N/A
No open date announced
South Point
5
5
2-3x tables w/ only one $5 buy in
Strat
5
10
Sunset Station
5
5
Other NV Casinos
Day Min
Night Min
Dividers
Comments
Edgewater (Laughlin)
10
10
Harrahs (Laughlin)
10
15
no
Atlantis (Reno)
5/10
5/10
2 tables with different mins
Cal Neva (Reno)
5
5
Circus Circus (Reno)
Closed
Closed
Closed table game pit
Eldorado (Reno)
10
10
Grand Sierra (Reno)
15
15-25
Peppermill (Reno)
10
10
3 craps tables
Silver Legacy (Reno)
10
10
Hard Rock (Tahoe)
Closed
Closed
Currently closed
Harrahs (Tahoe)
25
25
Montbleu (Tahoe)
10
15
Non/NV Casino
Day Min
Night Min
Dividers
Comments
Foxwoods (CT)
15
25
Mohegan (CT)
10-50
10-50
2 were 10, 2 $15, 1 $25, 1 $50. Plus a high rollers table
Harrington (DE)
10
15-25
Must wear mask and face shield
Blue Chip (Michigan City, IN)
5
10
5 minimum prop bets, 5 min ATS bet.
L’auberge (Lake Charles,LA)
25/50
25/50
2 $25 min and 2 $50 min tables. 1 bubble craps $5 min
Harrahs (Shreveport, LA)
15
25
Margaritaville (Shreveport, LA)
25
25
Ocean Downs (MD)
10
15
Maryland Live (MD)
25
50
Yes
5 tables, 4 per side. Electronic craps 15 min
MGM @ National Harbor
50-100
Yes
4 craps tables 2 were $50 and 2 were $100 mins. Not bubble craps or low roller options.
Firekeepers (Battle Creek, MI)
10
15+
No dividers, only distancing
1-2 tables depending on demand, did see it at $15 during the day $25 on Fri/Sat night. Masks required, no smoking. $3 Bubble Craps.
River City (St. Louis, MS)
20
20
Unknown
4 players per side. $20 min. You have to have at least a $20 bet for every throw to "hold your spot"
DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either. Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is. For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post. The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though. I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job. The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half. Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps. At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50. I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog. Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price. Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other. One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain. Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going. Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
Pa.’s casino industry looks ... By any measure ... This lack of specific data might help explain why Pennsylvania’s decision is an outlier as casinos remain open in New Jersey, New York ... Two Pa. casinos ready to roll; ... So frustrating when we are trying to get this thing under control so that we can all open our businesses again. ... Pennsylvania casinos. PA casinos were allowed to re-open as of Jan. 4 after a short closure period, and most did in fact re-open that day or in subsequent days. River Casino Philadelphia remains closed at least untill Jan. 15. Updates From PlayPennsylvania here. Rhode Island casinos. Some Pa. casinos are open — without poker, buffets, or valet parking by Andrew Maykuth , Updated: June 10, 2020 Plexiglas dividers separate video gaming machines at Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh on Monday. Casinos in PA open 24 hours: Parx; Presque Isle; Rivers Casino Philadelphia; Rivers Casino Pittsburgh (starting Nov. 16) Mount Airy Casino; Wind Creek Casino; Mohegan Sun Pocono; Harrah’s Philadelphia; Hours of other casinos in PA. The Meadows: Sunday-Thursday, 8-4 a.m. Friday-Saturday, 8-5 a.m. Valley Forge Casino : Casinos in Pennsylvania are once again closing due to the rapid rise of COVID-19 cases. All PA casinos will be closed from Dec. 12. until Jan. 4, and possibly longer.. PlayPennsylvania will continue to provide updates on Pennsylvania casino closures and eventual reopenings as information becomes available.. Timeline of PA casino closures and reopenings in spring/summer One of the Great Casinos in Pennsylvania! There's something for everyone at Harrah's Casino in Chester, PA! Open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year--Harrah's is the premier hot spot for gaming action in Pennsylvania. The casino features more than 2,900 of your favorite slots, video poker machines, and live table games. Pennsylvania’s casinos provide the latest gaming machines and tables, plus possible access to on-site racing venues for additional betting. Many casinos are also entertainment hubs that offer access to concert and show venues and a wealth of exquisite dining options. Try your luck at one of the 12 Pennsylvania casinos below, where you’ll be sure to pocket many fond memories, if not loads ... Written by. There are 12 brick-and-mortar casinos in Pennsylvania that offer slots, tables games, poker, horse racing and sports betting. They stretch from north to south and east to west, with options available to residents and visitors throughout the state. There are 12 casinos in activity within the territory of PA. In total the gaming offer include more than 30,000 slot machines, 1,000 gaming tables, 290 poker tables as well as 9 horse tracks. The Parx Casino & Racing of Bensalem is one of the biggest gaming venue with an offer of 3,500 slot machines as well as 130 gaming tables such as Blackjack, Roulette, Craps, Baccarat, 3 & 4 Card Poker.
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